Friday 26 April 2024

2024 NFL Draft - 1st Round Reaction

Now that the dust has settled on the first round of the NFL draft, I wanted to put together some superlatives for the events of last night. Of course, Caleb Williams came off the draft board early, but beyond that, there were relatively few surprises as the majority of teams leaned into the consensus rankings, picking up players in positions of need and eschewing trades (for the most part).

Personally, I felt like this year's draft was one of the least exciting for a long time, with the first four picks pretty nailed on before the draft even began. My own predictions were correct for the first six picks, and there were very few players who came off the board that weren't projected to. It's a testament to the strength in depth of the class that so many offensive linemen were selected (9), as well as a record-breaking number of offensive players in total in the first round (14 in a row to start the draft, 23 total).

Fingers crossed the rest of the draft throws up some surprises, and I for one can't wait to see where the likes of Luke McCaffrey, Spencer Rattler, and Jacob Cowing land over the next two days.


Big Winners - Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions

Three of the NFC North teams fall into this category for me, which I suppose makes the Green Bay Packers one of the losing teams from the opening night, but the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings both added two playmakers, each getting their prospective quarterbacks of the future. 

The Vikings had to jump up one place to do so, for fear of another team leapfrogging the New York Jets, but came away with a National Championship winning quarterback, and one of the best edge rushers in the class. That will stand them in good stead for chasing down the new addition in Chicago.

Speaking of Chicago, they now have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, at least on paper. Caleb Williams is a generational talent with unlimited upside, the likes of which we've only really seen with Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, and Peyton Manning in the last 30 years, while Rome Odunze is the most polished receiver in the class, and will be eased into life in the Windy City alongside fellow new arrival Keenan Allen. Even if the defense fails to show up this season, the O should be capable of putting up enough points to keep games competitive.

Similar to the Bears and Vikings, the Arizona Cardinals stood pat with their two first round selections and went and got themselves the most pro-ready receiver in the shape of Marvin Harrison Jr., and a difference maker on the defensive line in Darius Robinson. Harrison could well be the second coming of Larry Fitzgerald in the desert, with the size, speed, and catch radius to make an immediate impact, while the addition of Robinson will go some way to ensuring the defense is somewhat less overrun than it was at times last season.

Finally, the Detroit Lions needed to trade up to get their man, but did so by taking the best cornerback in the entire draft. Terrion Arnold played for one of the biggest college programmes at Alabama, and was a consistent performer on the back end of a Nick Sagan defense which regularly converts multiple players to the pros every year. With that being the one major hole on the Lions roster, it's entirely feasible that they just catapulted themselves into the conversation for Super Bowl contenders after just one selection.


Big Losers - Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans

What are the Atlanta Falcons doing?! You've just signed Kirk Cousins to a huge contract, and now you go and draft a quarterback with the 8th overall pick. Not only that, but by the time Cousins' contract gets to a point where you can get him off the roster, Michael Penix Jr. will be 28 years old. I know that quarterbacks have more longevity in their careers these days, but stepping into the fold at 28 is too much, even by modern QB standards. There were other positions of need on the roster which could have been filled at 8, or they could even have traded back and likely still picked up their man. Instead, they pulled the trigger on a project quarterback that may set the franchise back a step.

I didn't hate the Titans' selection of J.C. Latham. It was definitely their biggest need coming into draft day, but with the depth of the offensive line talent, and only Joe Alt having gone off the board before the Titans were on the clock, they literally had the pick of the bunch. Fautanu, Fuaga, and Fashanu were all rated higher on most draft boards, and some have even argued that Tyler Guyton (pick 28 to Dallas) has a higher ceiling. This looks like it could have been another case of a team which could have traded back and still got their guy.

The Buffalo Bills meanwhile, managed to be one of the biggest losers on draft day, despite twice adding extra picks by trading back, first with the Kansas City Chiefs, and then with the Carolina Panthers. The reason they fall into this category is because their glaring need is at wide receiver and they allowed the Kansas City Chiefs, one of their biggest rivals in the AFC, to jump above them and select the man who will likely fill the Tyreek Hill role in the form of Xavier Worthy. The Texas burner ran a record 4.21 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and will now line up against the Buffalo Bills for at least the next five seasons. I've got little doubt that pick 33, which now belongs to the Bills, will turn out to be a wide receiver, but they could have stayed where they were and not directly strengthened a rival.

Thursday 25 April 2024

The 2024 NFL Draft: Round 1

Detroit was selected as the city to host the 2024 NFL Draft, and like the hometown Lions, this draft class is chock full of young talent. Some people have projected that it will be offense-heavy, with a possibility of a record number of quarterbacks to be selected. With the Chicago Bears on the clock, and a gaping vacancy at QB, it seems as though Caleb Williams will be the first name called by Roger Goodell, but who else will be donning new colours tonight?


1 - Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams, QB, USC

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the Chicago Bears opened up the draft selecting Caleb Williams. The USC product has been touted as the top player in this draft for seemingly years, and has had no shortage of superlatives thrown at him during the draft process. With comparisons to the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, there's plenty of hype to live up to for a man coming out of a school with a patchy recent record at the position (Sam Darnold, Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez).


2 - Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

A dual-threat, Heisman winning quarterback with the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. Sound familiar? It's no shock that Daniels has drawn Lamar Jackson comparisons, but can he compete on the biggest stage like the Ravens QB has proven he can? Only time will tell of course, but he lands in a spot with a stout defense, a bona fide receiver, and Kliff Kingsbury as his OC.


3 - New England Patriots - Drake Maye, QB, UNC

A young man with a cannon hanging off his right shoulder, Drake Maye is the sort of QB that the Patriots of old would have drafted, with solid pocket presence and the ability to make just about every throw on the field. The added bonus? He can make plays with his legs, and regularly does.


4 - Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

The Cardinals had a shocking year in 2023, struggling to move the ball consistently on offense. They make the change at wide receiver, drafting the son of an NFL Hall of Fame. Marvin Harrison Sr. played his entire career with Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, can his son team up with another first overall pick in Kyler Murray to the same effect 28 years later?


5 - Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

The Jim Harbaugh era begins in Los Angeles with the selection of second-generation talent Joe Alt. From Notre Dame, he's already got pedigree, following in the footsteps of the likes of Zack Martin, Ronnie Stanley, and Quenton Nelson. Harbaugh loves physical football, and Alt joins Rashawn Slater as the bookends on an offensive line which will now block for Gus Edwards. They're building a powerful unit out west to compete with the Chiefs.


6 - New York Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Catching passes from the Heisman trophy winner, Malik Nabers joins Odell Beckham Jr. as first round LSU receivers drafted by Big Blue. Nabers has big play potential whenever he puts his hands on the ball, and will now add some dynamism to a Giants offense which struggled massively last season, and has now lost Saquon Barkley as well. Nabers could well be the man to inject excitement into the MetLife fans.


7 - Tennessee Titans - J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

The Tennessee Titans get their biggest need, and fill that hole with one of the biggest players in the draft. Latham weighs 340lbs, and will be a tough man to move out of the way en route to Will Levis. You can count on Alabama to provide a presence in the first round of an NFL draft, and there's no bigger presence than Latham, whose 6'5" frame is big enough to handle pass rushers in both the run and pass games.


8 - Atlanta Falcons - Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

Here comes the chaos! Kirk Cousins just earned over $100m by signing in Atlanta this offseason, and now the Falcons spend another high draft pick on the offensive side of the ball, and this time one that might not even start in year one! Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts are three studs at offensive skill positions, and the Falcons have added another one, who could play in 2025 after learning from one of the best pros in the game.


9 - Chicago Bears - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Back-to-back with his college QB, Odunze gets added to an offense which features Caleb Williams. Odunze is statistically the most well-rounded WR in the draft, excelling in every route on the tree. Pair him alongside D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, with Cole Kmet as a complementary piece, and you suddenly have an electric offense in the Windy City.


10 - Minnesota Vikings (via NYJ) - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

The 2023 15-0 National Championship-winning QB has just a short move from Michigan to Minnesota as he prepares to replace Kirk Cousins in the Twin Cities. JJ will be throwing to JJ as Justin Jefferson waits to help out his rookie QB and lift the Vikings back to the summit of the NFC North. Arguably, McCarthy lands in the most rookie-friendly situation of all the quarterbacks selected in the first round. 


11 - New York Jets (via MIN) - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Aaron Rodgers is coming back from an Achilles injury, so they need a big man to protect his blind side. Fashanu would have been a top pick last season, but he chose to return to Penn State. It may have impacted his stock a little, but not enough to stop him falling out of the first half of the first round. Physically, Fashanu has strength to move defenders around, but is athletic enough to work his way to the second level, making him a demon blocker in the run game.


12 - Denver Broncos - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Denver makes it 6 QBs from the first 12 picks. Bo Nix may be a bit of a reach at 12, but with a big need at the QB position, the Broncos pulled the trigger. He's got the mobility to make something of a difference with his feet, and the experience with his arm to make the right decisions having made 61 starts at the college level. Nix joins fellow Oregon Duck QB Justin Herbert in the AFC West, and now must raise the level of a franchise which has struggled for nigh-on a decade.


13 - Las Vegas Raiders - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

With Michael Mayer on the roster already, Brock Bowers immediately makes one of the best tight end tandems in the NFL. Bowers is simply the most polished tight end product we've seen in a number of years. He's big, powerful, and has the physicality to make a difference with the ball in his hands, and was the best player on the Georgia Bulldogs in practically every game this season. He'll immediately become a game changer for one of the league's most anaemic offenses. For reference, this is the first time at any point in any draft that 13 picks have been made on either offense or defense.


14 - New Orleans Saints - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The Saints have a screaming need at offensive tackle, with question marks over Ryan Ramczyk's NFL future following his knee injury. Fuaga is a brawler on the offensive line, who will take pure pleasure in putting defensive ends on their behind. Derek Carr will feel safer, and Alvin Kamara will definitely feel like he can return to the form of years gone by as Fuaga opens up huge holes in the run game.


15 - Indianapolis Colts - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

The first defensive player off the board, Latu has had a magical comeback after being medically retired from the sport a few years ago. Latu is so quick off the ball that he sometimes makes it to the QB without being touched, which is an unbelievably valuable attribute to have for any defensive coordinator. The 23.5 sacks over the last two years will stand him in good stead for chasing the likes of C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence for the next ten years (hopefully).


16 - Seattle Seahawks - Byron Murphy, DT, Texas

A late-rising player in the draft process, Murphy can disrupt the line of scrimmage in the rush and pass games. It should be no surprise that former Ravens DC Mike McDonald went with a defensive stalwart with his first pick as a head coach. He loves physicality and effort on defence, and Murphy fits both those bills in one of the most important positions on that side of the ball.


17 - Minnesota Vikings (via JAX) - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

Turner joins J.J. McCarthy, who he sacked in the Rose Bowl in December. Turner was one of the blue-chip defensive prospects in this draft, and now gets the chance to replace Danielle Hunter. Turner's arm length and sideline-to-sideline range is ridiculous, so once he gets a crumb of green grass to run into, he'll be lethal in chasing down quarterbacks and running backs. He may be slightly on the light side, but he plays with enough physicality to negate those worries.


18 - Cincinnati Bengals - Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

At 6'7" 340lbs, Mims is one of the biggest men you could put on a football field. His footwork belies his size, and he'll immediately beef up an offensive line which has failed to keep Joe Burrow upright for the last two seasons. His height and weight are well distributed across his enormous frame, so there's no obvious signs that he's carrying excess weight around the middle. He'll start the season behind Orlando Brown Jr. and Trent Brown, but they have the ability to bring him along slowly if need be.


19 - Los Angeles Rams - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

The first first round pick for the Los Angeles Rams since 2016, and the first ever for Sean McVay, Jared Verse is a danger on the outside as a power rusher who will do his bit to help mitigate the loss of Aaron Donald. Verse had a propensity for pushing offensive tackles back into their quarterback and taking out two men with one move. That sort of strength will play at any level, so Rams fans could look forward to an immediate impact from their new defensive gadget.


20 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

With both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields added to the mix in Pittsburgh, protecting their quarterbacks was the absolute priority this offseason, and they've done just that with the versatile Fautanu. The Washington product could, theoretically, start at any position on the offensive line, and will likely be an immediate starter in the most physical division in the NFL. Whether he can overcome his injury concerns (knee, foot) is probably the biggest question mark hanging over his head.


21 - Miami Dolphins - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

Chop Robinson will go to Miami to work alongside Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb as a trio of pass rushers with a variety of moves to bamboozle offensive lines. Chop backs himself with speed, and is more raw as a rusher than other players who have come off the board already, but working alongside the two aforementioned players, he'll pick up plenty of new moves. Fun fact: He's called chop because he was big like a pork chop when he was a baby.


22 - Philadelphia Eagles - Quinton Mitchell, CB, Toledo

A small-school corner back, Mitchell ticks all the boxes as to what the Philadelphia Eagles have been searching for this offseason. He's got the speed to line up alongside any wide receiver, and the strength to play press coverage against them too. With the Eagles' defense, Mitchell will likely line up in man coverage more often than not, so he's going to have plenty of eyes watching him throughout his rookie season in one of the most passionate environments in the NFL.


23 - Jacksonville Jaguars (via MIN) - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

The second of the LSU wide receivers to come off the board tonight, Brian Thomas immediately replaces Calvin Ridley in Duval County. Thomas' 17 TDs last season led FBS, but his game isn't just reliant on speed. He gets out of his cuts easily, and has sticky hands to beat defenders in any number of ways. He plays a lot more physical than his size would suggest, often winning battles with cornerbacks when the ball was in the air.


24 - Detroit Lions (via DAL) - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The hosts of the draft get the top cornerback and he gets to walk out on stage in front of 275,000 of his new fans. Playing as the best cornerback on one of the best teams in college football should tell you all you need to know about how good he is. Arnold posted career highs in most categories in 2023, and has been added to a rising, young, hungry defense in Detroit which is led by one of the best motivational coaches in the league. They just need to take one small step next season to go from Championship Game to Super Bowl.


25 - Green Bay Packers - Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

Morgan is as athletic as you can be when you measure 6'5" 311lbs. He's a great mover out in space, and has the ability to get outside on screens and up to the second level in the run game, which the Packers will absolutely use to their advantage as they look to protect Jordan Love. As a replacement for David Bakhtiari, Morgan may not be like-for-like right now, but he's certainly at least as polished as Bakhtiari was as a rookie.


26 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Graham Barton, G/C, Duke

The Bucs made some huge signings in free agency, keeping together the core of the team which played in the NFC Divisional Round last season, and now add to that roster with the selection of Graham Barton. With question marks hanging over the future of Ryan Jensen, Barton will be a flexible option on the offensive line at guard or center. A sign of how good this guy is? They played him at left tackle at Duke, pitting him against the best pass rushers in the conference.


27 - Arizona Cardinals - Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri

Robinson is a huge edge rusher, but projects to move inside more at the next level. At 285lbs, he has the size to play as a defensive end, and with 13 sacks in his college career, he has the pedigree to rise to the challenge of NFL talent. The Cardinals need as much help as they can get, and with Robinson added to Harrison, they've got game changers on both sides of the ball in the first round tonight.


28 - Kansas City Chiefs (via BUF) - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

The Chiefs jump up four spots in the draft to get their man in the shape of Xavier Worthy. Two years removed from losing Tyreek Hill, people asked how you replace that sort of speed. The answer is evident, as Andy Reid adds the fastest man in NFL Combine history. As a fast-twitch player, Worthy will be lethal in the Chiefs offense, but alongside Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice, it could be back to our regularly scheduled programming as the Chiefs look to three-peat.


29 - Dallas Cowboys (via DET) - Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

Dallas has plenty of pedigree along the offensive line, usually drafts well, and has a history of developing players at that position. Tyron Smith has moved on, and Guyton is a huge man to try and replace him. At the very least, Guyton has the physical tools to do the job, and he has the potential to be the very best offensive lineman in this draft if he hits his ceiling.


30 - Baltimore Ravens - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Wiggins is a pure cover cornerback. He may be a little lightweight, but he moves fluidly, and flies downfield when he's at full speed. There have been questions over his physicality, but if there's any franchise that can teach that tool, it's the Ravens. In the words of GM Eric DeCosta, you can never have too many corner backs, and the Ravens get to add one in the first round to play alongside Brandon Stephens, Marlon Humphrey and Arthur Maulet. Wiggins brings a different dimension as he can cover the twitchy receivers that Baltimore has struggled with in the past.


31 - San Francisco 49ers - Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida

Pearsall brings excellent hands and excellent route running, both of which are crucial skills valued by Kyle Shanahan when building his offense. Added to a cast including Kittle, McCaffrey, Samuel, and Aiyuk, the 49ers continue bolster their offense, which was already pretty scary. With the physicality and grittiness that Pearsall brings to the field, the 49ers can still hurt you in any way imaginable.


32 - Carolina Panthers (via KC and BUF) - Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

The Panthers jump up one spot to add an extra year of contractual control over Xavier Legette, who they promised they would draft with the 33rd pick. Legette is a physical player who loves to gain yards after the catch. He draws comparisons to the likes of A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf in terms of his build, but he has the ability to beat defenders on the inside, as well as going up and getting the ball downfield. A nice option to add to Bryce Young's sophomore receiving corps.